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Prediction for CME (2021-05-23T11:38:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-05-23T11:38Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16962/-1
CME Note: Source an eruption from AR 2824 (N21E7) at 11:03Z associated with an M1.1 flare peaked at 11:26Z. A large amount of material moving quickly to the west of the AR in AIA 193/304/171 after the eruption. This CME appears faster than the 2021-05-23T09:53Z CME, and caught up to it in the LASCO C2 imagery, and then appeared as one CME in the C3 imagery. ARRIVAL: T.Nieves-Chinchilla: Signatures of flux rope(s) between 05-26T18Z - 05-27T5:00Z: either two flux-ropes or a single complex structure with internal signatures of interaction. A structure with flux rope signatures starting before 0527T06:00Z with SN rotation in Bz and low temperature. Bulk velocity for the whole period is increasing - also a signature of compression; it seems that there is interaction.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-05-27T05:12Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-05-26T03:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

This mail contains the xml version of the CME arrival alert.
expected arrival time: 2021-05-26T03:00:00
time_uncertainty: 12
min_estimated_peak_K: 4
max_estimated_peak_K: 6
probability_of_arrival: 70

:Issued: 2021 May 24 1642 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/bul
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# SIDC Weekly bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic activity             #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
WEEK 1064 from 2021 May 17
SOLAR ACTIVITY
---------------
The week started with only one active region visible, NOAA AR 2822 (Catania 93, alpha
magnetic field configuration), it did not produce any significant flares. On May 17
NOAA AR 2824 rotated over the west limb (Catania 96, beta magnetic field
configuration), already producing C-class flares. After one day it decayed to alpha
magnetic field configuration and produced only B-class flares. This region then
increased in complexity, its photospheric magnetic field was classified as beta gamma
by May 22, it produced then three M-class flares: M1.1 peaking at 17:11 UT on May 22,
M1.4 flare peaking at 21:36 UT on 22 May, M1.1 peaking at 11:08 UT on May 23.Three
(partially) Earth directed CMEs erupted on 22 May. Two of them are associated with
M-class flares. The first one starting at 09:12 UT (LASCO C2) with 300 km/s and about
90 degrees angular width, expected arrival at 23 UT on 26 May. The second one at
16:23 UT (COR2A), with a speed of 460 km/s and an expected arrival time at 02 UT on
26 May. The last one started at 22:00 UT (COR2A), with a speed of 629 km/s, and
expected to arrive at 13 UT on 25 May. The last two were faint in LASCO and better
visible in COR2. The speed of the CMEs increased from the first to the third, so they
will encounter and interact on their way to the Earth. On 23 May one more (partially)
Earth directed CME was observed, at 11:00 UT on COR2A, expected on 26 May at 03 UT,
with speed 680 km/s.

Lead Time: 86.05 hour(s)
Difference: 26.20 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Yaireska Collado (M2M Office) on 2021-05-23T15:09Z

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